Ethereum (ETH) broke down from a 994-day support area. ETH fell to a new 2025 low and the lowest price in 465 days. Has Ethereum’s bullish cycle ended, or will the trend reverse Ethereum’s performance? This cycle has been nothing short of disastrous. The price failed to reach a new all-time high and has fallen by 50% since its cycle high.
Last week, ETH closed below an ascending support trend line for the first time since the bull run started. This is a worrying sign that the bull market is over, especially since it occurred against the backdrop of positive news regarding the first White House Crypto Market summit. Let’s look at the charts and see if this is the case. If yes, where will Ethereum bottom?
Ethereum Breaks Long-Term Support
Last week, Ethereum dropped below a long-term ascending support trend line for the first time since the current bull run started. More accurately, the trend line had existed for 994 days. Breakdowns from such long-term structures often mean that the underlying trend has ended and a new one has started in the other direction. To further reiterate the bearish outlook, the ETH price closed below the $2,300 horizontal area for the first time in 2025, falling to a new yearly low of $1,989, the lowest price since November 2023.
So, the Ethereum drop makes the price action bearish, suggesting that the cycle has ended. Finally, technical indicators are also bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling and are into bearish territory at 50 and 0, respectively. If the downward movement continues, the next closest support area will be at $1,200, a level not seen since the start of 2023.
Bearish Long-Term Outlook for Ethereum
The long-term wave count for ETH is extremely bearish. According to the count, ETH completed a five-wave upward movement between 2019 and 2021. If true, the entire cycle’s upward movement has been part of a corrective wave X in a W-X-Y structure. The fact that a descending parallel channel contains the movement and the ETH price has now fallen below it increases the likelihood that this is the correct count. Giving waves W and Y the same length leads to a target of $760, breaking below the previous cycle’s low.
If reached, it would be the lowest price since the start of 2021. This could mark the end of the correction, after which a significant upward movement would follow. On the other hand, moving back inside the long-term channel would give some hope for a relief rally since that would also cause a reclaim of the long-term trend line. However, the movement inside the channel is extremely choppy, indicative of a correction. Therefore, reclaiming the channel will not put a valid bullish count on the table.
The Ethereum network keeps advancing, with prospective updates such as the Pectra update in early 2025, which is designed to maximize scalability and competitiveness. These advancements, in addition to broadened institutional take-up and constructive regulatory adjustments, set up Ethereum for important progress in 2025 and afterward.
Final thoughts
This article is bearish for Ethereum (ETH) and highlights technical signals and the breakdown of key support levels that have characterized its bull market. The most alarming aspect is that ETH has broken below a long-term rising support trend line, which had been intact for 994 days. This breakdown indicates the end of Ethereum’s bullish phase with a possible move into a bear market. The price action, closing below the $2,300 level and falling to a new low of $1,989, lends credibility to this argument.
Technical markers such as the RSI and MACD are in favor of the bearish perspective, which reflects decreasing momentum. Further, the long-term wave count suggests that the current bull market for Ethereum was a corrective wave pattern and a target price as low as $760 if the downtrend continues. This would be a drastic fall from its present levels.
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